Back at December’s Disney Investor Day, he clearly emphasized that a robust Disney+ slate wouldn’t be possible without the power of the big screen and the franchises it has created. I would like to give Chapek the benefit of the doubt. Let’s see what happens with Black Widow, and if Disney emulates a Raya theatrical-Disney+ distribution pattern for that title. How fair is that for movie theaters? Black Widow Marvel Studios Plus, movie theaters have to compete with the whole Disney+ PVOD of it all. While those terms aren’t stiff in a regular marketplace, we’re still in a pandemic, and people aren’t flocking to the movies in great numbers. I’m told that Disney’s terms with exhibition for Raya were a two-week minimum play with a scale that starts at a 50% rental if the film grosses ultimately between $0 and $37.5M, and then 51% if the domestic gross finals between $37.5M and $50M. has been a partner with exhibition, and has made a deal on terms for their same day HBO Max titles, Disney hasn’t budged. It was explained to me that Raya‘s $30 price point on Disney+ is roughly equivalent to the rental that Disney would get from five or six movie tickets. Disney doesn’t have to split that PVOD revenue with any exhibitor. What’s scaring many about Raya is that Disney gets to keep 100% of whatever they’re making from the $30 Disney+ PVOD purchase of Raya. Keep in mind that even if Los Angeles is reopened by that date and auditorium capacity restrictions ease, Disney still needs the rest of the world to move ahead with Black Widow and make the $1 billion grossing film that everyone wants to see, that is, for the title to remain a pure theatrical release.
Even though Chapek said, “We certainly don’t want to do anything like cut the legs off a theatrical exhibition run,” many are concerned all of this is code for Disney moving forward with their theatrical day and date Disney+ model, and that Black Widow may emulate the same distribution path as Raya on May 7.
That’s particularly after Disney CEO Bob Chapek’s recent remarks Monday at a virtual investment conference hosted by Morgan Stanley in which he said things like, “The consumer is probably more impatient than they’ve ever been before,” and that given how the pandemic has brought a number of movies into the home, he’s not sure “there’s going back” to the way films were theatrically distributed prior. Still, Raya‘s release is striking plenty of fear for rival distributors and for exhibition.
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